SHORT-TERM: CRITICAL TIME, BULLS ARE NOT OVER YET
- The pullback isn’t over yet but if bears cannot decisively breakdown today’s low, then be careful of bulls counter-strike. In another word, bulls are not over yet.
- There’re 64% chances a green day tomorrow. The odds are close to random but still have a little little bullish edges.
- Trading wise, the name of the game is to sell bounce.
Why aren’t bulls over yet? See chart below, if cannot drop much from here then it could be a 3 push down pattern formed therefore we’d see a 2 legged up from here which generally would be larger than the rebound from 05/17 to 05/19. Bears need not to worry for now though as it seems the pullback isn’t over yet, just the question is how much?
Why are 64% chances a green day tomorrow? See chart below, SPY open and close below its BB bottom since 2003 means bullish in the next 1 and 5 days.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL
Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
- 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
- 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(5) too low, so a bottom is close.
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
- 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
- 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
- 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
- 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
04/21 Market Recap : SPX will close below 04/20 close soon. 05/06 Market Outlook : Bearish in 2 weeks.
- 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red
or drops below SPX 1318.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: